Brazilian Real Declines on Faltering Trade Surplus

The Brazilian currency posted a second day of losses versus the greenback as the national current account showed worse than expected data for the month of June, damping demand for the real in international markets.

Posted in Brazilian Real | No Comments »

Is GDP Optimism Bad for U.S. Dollar?

The U.S. dollar is falling against the euro for the second day today as the traders expect a decline in the contraction of the U.S. GDP for the second quarter of 2009.

Posted in U.S. Dollar | No Comments »

The Global Business News Leader | Monday, July 27, 2009

Dr.S.Sivaraman
EURO and GBP were making higher level swings and upward stop hunt moves for week beginning. They are expected to swing near high during early Japanese session and slide.Then a quick rise and slide mov... (Jul 20, 2009)



Emerging markets soaring…overshoot?
Jack Crooks
Emerging markets continue to fly. Many for good reason I suspect. The iShares MSCI Emerging Stock Index has rebounded 50% from its low back in November last year. (Jul 27, 2009)



Weekly Technical Strategy
Mohammed Isah
EURUSD-EUR maintained a bullish tone the past week following through on its previous week strength to close higher at 1.14200. (Jul 27, 2009)

Classic Technical Analysis

I sold AUDUSD at 0.7896 and NZDUSD at 0.6305. Looking first at the Australian Dollar, prices are showing bearish cues with two bearish Star candlesticks after a Hammer emerged on a re-test of broken support at a rising trend line established from the lows in March. As for NZDUSD, the pair came dangerously close to taking out my stop-loss but fell short, reversing lower having tested the swing high from early June. It appears that the US Dollar is finding support from news of next week's Treasuries auction and I will remain short, although current valuations are certainly at an uncomfortable proximity to my risk cutoff levels.

Market / Economic News Forex Trading Weekly Forecast - 07.27.09

US Dollar Still Waiting for Its Breakout but Will the Market Wait until Friday's 2Q GDP Report?
Friday, 24 July 2009 23:29:10 GMT
More Reports

The Pound is Unfazed by GDP, Will The Dollar Yield to its Own Growth F

Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist and Jaclyn Sales
The dollar holds near support into the close of the week, creating even greater pressure for Monday.

Stories To Watch on DailyFX

- Will the dollar break? Compare the fundamental and technical outlook.
- Want to find up-to-the-minute news on the currency market? Check out the new DailyFX Forex Stream.

Questions? Comments? You can send them to John (jkicklighter@dailyfx.com).

Trading Week Outlook:

Monday, July 27 will begin with the German Gfk Group Consumer Climate Survey, an early indicator of current economic conditions and consumer expectations, at 2:00 am, ET.

News from the Euro-zone will bring the Euro-zone M3 Money Supply, the European Central Bank's broadest measure of money supply growth, at 4:00 am, ET.

Tuesday, July 28 will start with the Swiss Consumption Indicator of consumer spending, at 2:00 am, ET.

Important report from the U.K. will bring the CBI- Confederation of British Industry Distributive Trades Survey of realized sales made by retailers and wholesalers, scheduled at 6:00 am, ET.
Wednesday, July 29 will begin with the preliminary estimate of the German CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone’s largest economy, expected around 2:00 am, ET.

A leading indicator of the U.K. housing market- the Bank of England’s Mortgage Approvals Report, measuring the number of issued home loans, will be released at 4:30 am, ET, along with the U.K. Consumer Lending, a measure of newly issued consumer credit, also at 4:30 am, ET.
Thursday, July 30 will start with the German Retail Sales, the main gauge of consumer spending, expected around 2:00 am, ET, and the German Unemployment Rate, at 3:55 am, ET.

A spotlight event will bring the Euro-zone Consumer Confidence, a measure of consumers’ outlook on economic conditions, at 5:00 am, ET.

Friday, July 31 will begin with the Japanese Housing Starts, a leading indicator of housing market activity measuring construction of new residential properties, at 1:00 am, ET.

News from the Euro-zone will bring a spotlight event- the Euro-zone Flash HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, a preliminary flash estimate of the main measure of inflation in the Euro-zone and the European equivalent to the CPI- Consumer Price Index, at 5:00 am, ET, along with the Euro-zone Unemployment Rate, also at 5:00 am.

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Today's All Things Forex Broadcast: New Institutional Forecasts- Clarity or More Uncertainty for the USD

In the broadcast today: New Institutional Forecasts- Clarity or More Uncertainty for the USD? We examine a number of new institutional forecasts demonstrating conflicting views on the future fate of the USD ahead of the Q3 of 2009, we focus on the USD, the JPY and the EUR before the sequence of important economic data for the rest of the holiday-shortened trading week, we analyze the market's reaction to the Japanese Industrial Production, the Euro-zone Economic Sentiment and the reasuring statements from Chinese officials on foreign exchange reserves, we discuss forecasts from Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan Chase and UBS, and prepare for the busy trading session ahead.

Live Broadcast from 1:00 pm to 2:00 pm, Eastern Time (18:00 - 19:00 GMT), Monday - Friday.

Listen to the archived Broadcasts

New Zealand Dollar Rallies on Corporate Earnings

The New Zealand currency is trading this week near to a nine-month high versus the U.S. dollar, as corporate earnings and stocks performance attracted investors to the riskier profile of the kiwi if compared to more conservative currencies like the greenback and the yen.

Posted in New Zealand Dollar | No Comments »

Pound Slides on Quarterly Recession Numbers

The pound posted losses today versus most of the 16 main traded currencies as today, gross domestic product figures released in the United Kingdom revealed that the quarterly recession in the European nation was more than double of what economists forecast.

Posted in Great Britain Pound | No Comments »

Canadian Dollar Ends Week High on Government Statement

The Canadian dollar ended another day gaining versus its U.S. counterpart, as government officials affirmed that the country may be already getting out of recession.

Posted in Canadian Dollar | No Comments »

Tracking Correlations Between Equities, Commodities, and Currencies

in the Forex markets, prices move for many reasons. When US companies build factories overseas, the payroll of those workers must be paid in local currency which means the US Dollar is exchanged for units of the local currency. When the goods that are manufactured in this factory are sold in foreign countries, the conversion of those currencies back into US Dollars eventually takes place. US companies that extend credit to overseas customers often need to hedge against the risk that the currencies of their customers depreciates to the point of wiping out the expected profit on the sale of the goods before payment is received. These are a few of the basic business reasons for day-to-day movements in the Forex markets.

Since 2001, the volume of trading in the Forex market has more than doubled as many companies decided to become speculators as well as hedgers in the Forex markets. When other market participants that also speculate, such as hedge funds and money management firms are considered, between 70% to 90% of the recent movements in the Forex markets are due to speculation, accounting for the explosion in the amounts of daily Forex trading. Speculators desire to profit from the movement of an asset without the intent of taking delivery of the asset. They provide necessary liquidity to the party that is attempting to hedge some form of risk.
Hedge funds and money management firms also speculate in other markets such as equity and commodities markets. Since the amount of money available to speculate is finite, money tends to flow into and out of various asset classes. Tracking the movement of the so-called hot money into and out of each asset class is possible if a trader understands the reasons for the sudden shifts. Once the reasons are clear, a chart can be constructed to give the Forex trader a heads-up on which currencies are strengthening for potential long trades, and which pairs are weakening for potential shorting opportunities. If the trader also trades equities or commodities, this information can be used to time trading decisions in those markets, as well.
In the currency markets, money flows into countries to take advantage of higher interest rates to earn higher returns. This strengthens one currency in the pair and weakens the other currency. If the US Dollar is one of the currencies in the pair, then assets that move inversely to the US Dollar will begin to strengthen as the US Dollar weakens. Assets that are priced in dollars such as gold, oil, and copper will move inversely to the US Dollar. Producers of these goods need to charge higher prices to compensate for the weak dollar.
The US Dollar and the US Equities markets have been negatively correlated especially since the credit crisis and start of the recent recession. One reason for this is that exports to growing economies such as China are positives for the US economy during this period of the US consumer deleveraging. For exports to continue, the US dollar needs to remain weak. Stocks of companies that are exporting products tend to rise when the US Dollar weakens. Companies involved in the exports of certain commodities also benefit from the weak dollar. Another term to become familiar with is "risk aversion." Risky assets such as equities and commodities have been moving up on days when the US Dollar is weak. When fear is the dominant sentiment, money flows into safe assets such as US Treasuries and the US Dollar and out of the riskier assets.

Once this relationship between assets that move in the opposite direction from the US Dollar is known, a chart that watches the movement of the markets can be constructed. The 5 minute chart below is an example of a small time frame correlation chart used for timing entries that overlays gold, oil, and the Russell 2000 Small Cap index on a chart with the US Dollar index. On 7-14-09, the US Dollar index began to sell off around 1:00 PM EST. Around the same time, the commodities markets represented by gold and oil, and the US equity markets represented by the Russell 2000, began to rally. On 7-15-09, the US Dollar selloff continued as the US equities markets had one of their best days in 2009, rising 3% for the day, while oil rebounded from recent selling, and gold had a similar strong performance. When a trader looks at a chart similar to this one, it is possible to track where the hot money is flowing visually, without trying to process all the reasons for the flows.

CURRENCY FOCUS EUR/USD

FXstreet.com | Wed, Jul 22 2009, 23:04 GMT
Major’s crosses against greenback entered Asia almost at the same exact level they did 24 hours ago.

READ ALL

GBP/USD
GBP/USD rises further to 1.6487, intra-day high
FXstreet.com | Wed, Jul 22 2009, 17:08 GMT
The Sterling's recovery against the Dollar has continued in the last hour and Cable has risen around 60 pips from 1.6425 to post 1.6487 as fresh intra-day high. Currently the pair is trading around 1.6470/80, 0.35% above today's opening price action.

READ ALL

USD/JPY
USD/JPY finds support at 93.45
FXstreet.com | Wed, Jul 22 2009, 20:07 GMT
The Yen is so far during the American session. USD/JPY failed to break above 93.80 and it was rejected from those levels.

READ ALL

USD/CHF
USD/CHF posts 1.0627 as fresh intra-day low
FXstreet.com | Wed, Jul 22 2009, 17:26 GMT
Greenback is falling against European currencies. USD/CHF fell more than 80 pips in a few hours after the opening bell at Wall Street, losing previous gains.

READ ALL

Other Currencies
USD/CAD falls to post 1.1032 as fresh intra-day low
FXstreet.com | Wed, Jul 22 2009, 11:58 GMT
The Dollar's decline against the Canadian from 1.1090, intra-day high, in the European session has continued to break 1.1045 support and post 1.1032 as fresh intra-day low. Currently the pair is trading around 1.1045/55, 0.12% lower than opening price action.

GBP/USD: Trading the U.K. Retail Sales Report

Household spending in the U.K. is expected to rebound in the second-half of the year, with economists forecasting retail sales to rise 0.3% in June, and speculation for an economic recovery later this year could drive the British pound higher as growth prospects improve.
Trading the News: U.K. Retail Sales
What’s Expected
Time of release: 07/23/2009 09:30 GMT, 04:30 EST
Primary Pair Impact : GBPUSD
Expected: 0.3%
Previous: -0.6%
Effect the U.K. Retail Sales report had over GBPUSD for the past 2 months
May 2008 U.K. Retail Sales
Consumer spending in the U.K. unexpectedly slipped 0.6% in May, with the annual rate of consumption falling 1.6% from the previous year, and the data reinforces a dour outlook for growth and inflation as households face a weakening labor market paired with fears of a protracted downturn. A deeper look at the report showed discretionary spending on clothing and footwear slumped 1.9% from April, with sales at non-specialized stores falling 1.8%, while spending on household goods advanced 1.6% during the month. Meanwhile, the Bank of England continued to see a risk of a slower recovery as credit conditions remain far from normal, with Governor Mervyn King stating that ‘banks’ ability to finance a sustainable recovery remains impaired by low levels of equity capital.’ The comment suggests that the BoE may expand its asset purchase program in the months ahead in an effort to shore up the ailing economy.
April 2008 U.K. Retail Sales
Retail sales in the U.K. jumped 0.9% in April, topping forecasts for a 0.5% rise, and the data encourages an improved outlook for future growth as the government takes unprecedented steps to shore up the economy. The breakdown of the report showed sales at non-specialized stores increased 3.5% from March, with demands for household goods rising 0.2%, while discretionary spending on clothing and footwear slowed to 0.3% from 0.9% in the previous month. At the same time, BoE Governor King said that he expects a ‘slow and protracted’ recovery as the region faces its worst recession in over half a century, and went onto say that ‘inflation is more likely to be below the target than above.’ The dovish outlook held by the board suggests that the MPC may expand its asset purchase program in order to jump-start the economy, and is likely to hold the key rate the record-low for some time as growth and inflation falter.
What To Look For Before The Release
Traders with access to market depth information via the FXCM Active Trader Platform may use it to gauge the potency of the economic data release as well as to shed some light on the market’s directional bias. Increasing volume ahead of the announcement will telegraph likely follow-through behind whatever move is to materialize, while an imbalance in available liquidity on the Bid versus the Offer side of the market will tell us the direction major institutions are likely favoring ahead of the announcement:

Forex: EUR/USD finds resistance at 1.4200 and rises to test 1.42

Mon, Jul 20 2009, 16:36 GMT
http://www.fxstreet.com
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - EUR/USD has found support at 1.4200 level after declining around 50 pips from 7-week high at 1.4249 during the American session. In the last hour, pair has risen around 40 pips to climb to 1.4240 resistance. Currently the pair is trading around 1.4220/30, 0.90% above today's opening price action, in consolidation mode after the last bullish movement.
Valeria Bednarik, FXstreet.com collaborator, comments: "Hourly charts remain consolidating close to daily highs, as sentiment remains strongly bullish in the pair, thus hourly indicators show some over bought conditions. Despite that, no signs of correction or reversal clear at this point. Bigger time frames also approach to extreme conditions, so expect some retracement in next hours. If not, as further the rise, as stronger correction will be later."
Bednarik provides us with her levels: "Support levels: 1.4200 1.4180 1.4140. Resistance levels: 1.4250 1.4290 1.4335."
EUR/USD
EUR/USD (Jul 20 at 17:01 GMT)
1.4228/28 (0.79%)H 1.425 L 1.4106
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.4159 1.4195 1.4230 1.4228 1.4264 1.4300
[?]Trend Index [?]OB/OS Index
Bullish Neutral
Data updated on Jul 20 at 16:55 (15-minute timeframe)

Economic indicators up more than expected in June

NEW YORK – More plans to build homes, higher stock prices and fewer people filing first-time claims for jobless aid sent a private-sector forecast of U.S. economic activity higher than expected in June.
It was the third straight monthly increase for the New York-based Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, and another sign pointing toward the recession ending later this year.
The index rose 0.7 percent last month. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a gain of 0.4 percent. May's reading was revised up to a gain of 1.3 percent from 1.2 percent, while April was scaled back to 1 percent growth from 1.1 percent.
The group also said activity in the six-month period through June rose 2 percent, with an annual growth rate of 4.1 percent. That's the strongest rate since the first quarter of 2006.
The index is meant to project economic activity in the next three to six months.
If these conditions continue, "expect a slow recovery this autumn," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.
The Conference Board's leading indicators index bottomed in March after peaking in July 2007. The decline accelerated last fall after investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed and credit markets froze.
"We're now getting data which points to stabilization," said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR Inc. "The overall signal they're sending is the slide in economic activity is poised to end. The jury is still very much out in terms of what happens after that."
Many analysts expect modest economic growth in the fourth quarter after the gross domestic product posted the worst six-month performance in about 50 years at the end of 2008 and beginning of this year.
Stocks rose modestly on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average added about 40 points in midday trading, and broader indices also edged up.
Seven of the Conference Board index's 10 indicators rose in June, including building permits, stock prices, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and positive readings on jobs. Consumer expectations, manufacturers' orders for capital goods and the real money supply weighed down the forecast.
The biggest gainer was the "interest rate spread." That's the difference between yields on 10-year Treasurys and the federal funds rate, at which banks lend to one another, which is at a record low near zero. A big difference between the two is viewed as positive because investors are willing to lend for longer periods.
A government report last week showed construction of new U.S. homes in June rose to the highest level in seven months. That was the "most positive housing report in ages," said IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport.

Yen Rises on CIT Group Bankruptcy Speculations

The yen started today rebounding against several currencies like the euro and the pound, after CIT Group Inc. said it will probably not receive a federal loan to attempt a restructuring plan, leaving space for speculations that the commercial lender may file for bankruptcy.

The yen was losing against virtually all 16 major traded currencies this week as risk appetite grew fueled by new evidences that a global economic recovery might be near, damping demand for the Japanese currency. Today, the yen rebounded as a U.S. report indicated that the number of foreclosures hit a record in that country, slowing down the current risk appetite and bringing markets to a confused scenario that has been quite present since June. Speculations regarding the future of CIT Group Inc., one of the world’s biggest financial companies, also made traders to act cautiously, since an eventual bankruptcy of this dimension will certainly provoke a period of bearish performance in stock markets.
Analysts stress on the yen as a main determinant factor to measure risk appetite in financial markets, being constantly volatile in these times of uncertainty. After the CIT Group speculations rose among traders following the declaration made yesterday, it is hard to define how intense and long will be the period of risk appetite in financial markets.
EUR/JPY fell to 131.98 as of 10:51 GMT, after topping at 133.39 twelve hours before. NZD/JPY traded at 60.23 after hitting 61.44 yesterday.
If you want to comment on the Japanese yen’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.
This entry was posted on Thursday, July 16th, 2009 at 11:55 am and is filed under Japanese Yen. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Euro Continues Rally Against U.S. Dollar on Risk Appetite

The euro is having one of the most positive weeks against the U.S. dollar in two months, as a risk appetite wave brought investors to purchases euro-priced assets.

The euro is climbing significantly against the U.S. dollar and may soon raise concerns that exporters in the region will be affected, if last year’s rally would be repeated, in which one euro traded up to $1.60. Concerns regarding the U.S. dollar as the main global reserve currency also add for a negative sentiment towards the greenback, which may experience further losses in this week and the ones to follow.
EUR/USD traded at 1.4128 as of 13:22 GMT from 1.4085 yesterday, the highest value since July 2.
If you want to comment on the Euro’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.
This entry was posted on Thursday, July 16th, 2009 at 2:26 pm and is filed under Euro. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Canadian Dollar Down as Crude Oil Declines

The Canadian dollar, which started the week with an outstanding performance as traders, attracted by yield and driven by optimism, bought the loonie, fell today against several currencies as the crude oil, the main Canadian commodity export, declined.

The loonie fell for the first time in four days as speculations rose today, that the CIT Group Inc., one of the biggest financial conglomerates in the world, may file for bankruptcy, avoiding risky attitudes from traders, that opted for currencies like the euro and yen. The Canadian dollar also lost against its U.S. counterpart, as the price of crude oil declined 0.7 in New York, reaching $61.14 a barrel. The loonie is one of the most commodity-linked currencies available for trade in foreign-exchange markets, due to Canada’s economic dependence on its neighboring United Stated demands for energy.
Even if this week’s trend has been rather positive with a growing risk appetite and confidence among investors, the speculations regarding the CIT Group brought a different tone to markets, splitting opinions and making charts to take divergent trajectories. The fall in the price of crude oil stopped Canada’s dollar to continue its rally, and considering traders were already impacted by the speculations regarding CIT Group, the vast majority of them opted for other purchases in the currency market, like the yen and the euro.
USD/CAD traded at 1.1181 as of 19:25 GMT after bottoming at 1.1119 yesterday. CAD/JPY fell to 83.72 from yesterday’s rate of 84.83.
If you want to comment on the Canadian dollar’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.
This entry was posted on Thursday, July 16th, 2009 at 8:15 pm and is filed under Canadian Dollar. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Mexican Peso Falls Again on Crude Oil

Mexico is, together with Canada, one of the main energy suppliers for the United States energy demands, and its national currency, the peso, fell again today as the crude oil declined in New York.
The Mexican peso posted the eighth fall in nine days as the price of crude oil declined in New York, consequently impacting the Mexican currency, since one of the nation’s main exports is the oil, which mostly has the United States as its final destination. Today, speculations that interest rates in Mexico will be cut helped Mexican bonds to become more attractive, witnessing an increase on its price.

USD/MXN traded at 13.6075 as of 19:37 GMT from a previous rate of 13.5305.

If you want to comment on the Mexican peso’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.


This entry was posted on Thursday, July 16th, 2009 at 8:41 pm and is filed under Mexican Peso. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

NZ dollar may rise on stronger commodities, weaker yen

The New Zealand Dollar may push higher as commodity prices bounce back from multi-year lows, and the Yen weakens on concern Japan, the world’s second-biggest economy, will delay its stimulus plans. The Reuters Jeffries CRB index, a broad measure of the price of raw materials, rose 1.3% as demand for oil and Copper picked up. Figures this week showed Japan’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product fell 3.3%, while Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa resigned, sparking concern fiscal spending plans will be delayed.
“The yen has lost its lustre” with the bleak outlook for the Japanese economy, said Danica Hampton, currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand. “The risk to the kiwi is that it may nudge a little higher.” The kiwi fell to 51.32 U.S. cents from 51.41 cents yesterday and rose to 48.39 yen from 48.07. It dropped to 79.42 Australian cents from 79.51 cents yesterday, and declined to 40.49 EURO cents from 40.65 cents. The yen was weaker against the U.S. dollar, which is buying 94.37 yen, up from 93.32 yesterday.
Hampton said the New Zealand dollar may trade between 51 U.S. cents 52 cents today, and if it manages to break the topside, may rise as high as 52.50 cents. Limiting the kiwi advance, figures showed continuing jobless claims in the U.S. rose to just under five million in the weak ended Feb. 8. Weak fourth quarter sales for Hewlett-Packard Co., the world’s largest maker of personal computers, contributed to a turnaround in U.S. stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.7%.

Canadian and New Zealand Dollars Re-establish Uptrends

The U.S. Dollar finished mixed on Tuesday as investors for the most part looked for opportunities in more risky assets. U.S. equity markets rallied, increasing the desire to buy oversold higher-yielding assets such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, while selling the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Some Forex majors changed their daily chart trends to up indicating the potential for more upside movement while others appeared to be headed toward major retracement levels. For the most part the Dollar majors remained inside of their six-week ranges.
The USD CAD opened lower as expected and continued to weaken throughout the day. Risk came back into this market as investors felt confident once again in holding higher-risk, higher-yielding assets.
Yesterday's rise in equities along with a friendly Bank of Canada quarterly report helped the Canadian Dollar recover from its lowest level since May. A shift in sentiment triggered a reversal in the USD CAD on Monday. This pair had been rallying for about six weeks on concerns over the deteriorating global economy.
The Business Outlook survey from the Bank of Canada showed that business executives felt their sales would grow over the next year. In the survey, 61% of executives surveyed felt their sales would grow while only 23% were looking for a decline. The gap between the two figures suggests that sentiment in the business community may be shifting.
This news may be what the Canadian Dollar needs to put in a bottom, but improvements in the equity markets and crude oil are going to be necessary to help turn the current down trend back up.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis 14 July 2009

USD/JPY 93.26 - 14 July
USD/JPY Open 93.00 High 93.32 Low 91.82 Close 92.01
Dollar/Yen tried to decrease on Monday, but the 91.79 level held as a key support and limited the downward movement. The currency couple than rose sharply to 93.13, closing the day at 92.01. Any upward movement, as long as the pair remains under 94.50 should be considered as a correction. However, a hammer formation on the 4 hour chart indicates further bullish adjustment with possible test of 93.50. Break above this level may trigger a further upward correction towards next target 94.55. The CCI indicator is in the neutral zone of the 1 hour chart, suggesting calm trading.
Technical resistance levels: 92.90 94.00 95.35
Technical support levels: 91.70 90.60 89.45
Trading range: 93.40 - 92.75
Trend: Downward
Sell at 93.26 SL 93.56 TP 92.86
Already made +21 pips profit on USD/JPY today from the following signal:
5:40 GMT+1 Buy USD/JPY at 93.12 SL 92.86 TP 93.62 exited at 6:22 GMT.
Total today +182, yesterday +88, as shown at www.zifx.com/performance.php

Forexperts Forex Center > Forexperts Chart of the Day - 7/10/2009 – EUR/USD By James Chen

Chart courtesy of FX Solutions' FX AccuCharts. Price on 1st pane, Slow Stochastics on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in yellow; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average in light blue.)
7/10/2009 "" EUR/USD "" Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, once again retraced back up to re-test a key uptrend line on Thursday after having broken down below the same trendline in the beginning of the week. This bullish pullback, however, was in the process of being reversed as of Friday morning, as the EUR/USD bears came back into play to push for a bearish continuation of the trendline breakdown. This potential bearish continuation, however, would only be confirmed on a significant drop below the 1.3830 breakdown low. If this occurs, immediate further support to the downside resides in the key 1.3750 price region. And any subsequent break below that important level would be a substantially bearish indication for the pair that would place the current general uptrend in clear jeopardy of being reversed. To the upside, the apparent price level to watch for continues to be the 1.4335 level, which represents the highest high in the current uptrend. In the event of any near-future breakout above that level, an uptrend continuation will have been confirmed.
James Chen, CMT
Chief Technical Strategist
FX Solutions
IMPORTANT NOTICE: These comments are for information purposes only. The information contained on this document does not constitute a solicitation to buy or sell by FX Solutions, LLC., and/or its affiliates, and is not to be available to individuals in a jurisdiction where such availability would be contrary to local regulation or law. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors

Dollar and Yen Weaken as G8 Progresses By Lena Manousarides Professional Trader and Market Analyst

The dollar continued to gain overnight against its major counterparts, with EUR/USD trading below important 1.39 and GBP/USD finding it hard to gain above 1.61, after new regulations and plans were introduced yesterday by Alistair Darling, concerning the banks and their survival. The reality of that matter is that investors are not in a euphoric mood any more regarding the economic outlook and there is the feeling amongst traders that something is" cooking" underneath the rallies we see every now and then, and that it may progress to another market crash later in the year, amid inability of world economies to recover in a timely manner.
The EUR/USD is trading still between tight ranges and the pair found a support for now at 1.3860 as we mentioned the other day. The latter level is very important for the pair to hold for now, therefore next level to watch will be 1.3960 ahead of 1.3930. A clear break of those levels will take the pair above 1.40. Basically, for now, unless we have breakout of 1.38 or 1.40, best way to go is to buy or sell those ranges. The euro does not have any data today, so therefore the moves may be influenced by the pounds direction, what with BOE"s rate meeting the next big thing.
The economic calendar has a few important economic releases out today, with the main one being the BOE"s monetary meeting, which is expected to provide some kind of volatility, although the rates are expected to remain unchanged for the time being. The pound is in a wait and see mode these days and the range for GBP/USD is 1.60-1.65 for the current time. It is vital for 1.60 to hold for now, if further upside is to be seen. With all the political instability and financial trouble that UK is still facing, it makes it hard for traders to stay "faithful" to the British currency, as conditions seem to although improve slightly, nevertheless still deteriorating at a fast pace. Also, later on we have the jobless claims out of US, and this will be monitored closely by traders, after the worse than expected non far payroll the previous week. If the numbers continue to disappoint, further speculation about the economy could hit the markets and the dollar may benefit once again.
The G8 is still controlling the markets attention and although there has not been any mention for currencies and especially the dollar,-something which most traders were expecting to happen, the fact that world leaders don"t see economic recovery materialising as fast as initially predicted, keeps investors in the sidelines for now, and makes risk aversion a possible threat. Only the fact that the 8 biggest economies decided that they wont stop the stimulus efforts just yet as it was initially mentioned, makes us wonder, how "green" were the latest "green shoots" in the economy.
Stocks are slightly up since early European session; however let"s see how New York will open and how traders will react to further G8 rhetoric and economic numbers later on. One thing is certain for now, the current environment does not inspire one to start building long positions in stocks, equities or commodities and that is why, we see investors seek alternative investments. Also, with summer progressing and more traders planning their holidays, there is that risk of another choppy and dangerous markets action , one that could very well resemble last years "tragedy"
Lena Manousarides is a professional Trader and a Market Analyst for Spikecharts.com.

Daily Forex Analysis and Prediction for July 7, 2009

It is looks a little bit complicated, but we predict that it might have potentially to go up to 1.4050, but if it goes down, it should not down more than 1.3860. We suggest to wait until it goes down at around 1.39 or may be at around 13:00 to 14:00 o’clock, and then entry Buy.
(Current Price: 1.3962)
GBP/USD
It is more likely to go up to around 1.6350 or even 1.64, after it went down to around 1.6050. We suggest to hold buy after it went down.
(Current Price: 1.6255)
AUD/USD
It is more likely to go down to around 0.79, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 1.8040. We suggest to hold Buy is better.
(Current Price: 0.7955)
USD/JPY
It is complicated, but we predict that it is more likely to go down to around 95 or even 94, and after that, it might have potentially to go up to around 96. We suggest to use a breakout strategy, buy when it reaches 95.50, and Sell when it reaches 94.90.
(Current Price: 95.34)
USD/CHF
It is complicated. But we predict that it is more likely to go down to around 1.08, after it went up to around 1.0930.
(Current Price: 1.0858)

Daily Economic Round Up for July 7, 2009

United States
The USD was still a little tipsy as it lost its footing against most of the other majors yesterday. If its any consolation, it found itself at the positive end versus the GBP. More...
Eurozone
The EUR/USD set its sights on jumping back above the 1.4000 mark but the prevailing risk sentiment yesterday prevented it from doing so. Although the pair was able to make a rebound at the end of the day, weak economic data and recent criticism of the ECB's actions restrained the EUR from making further headway. More...
Japan
Early yesterday, we saw a mad dash to safety as the yen rallied strongly during the Asian and European session. The USDJPY pair opened at 96.15 and dropped as low as 94.67, before finally closing at 95.34. It appears that risk aversion continued to be the dominant market theme, as recent news has caused traders to finally see that global economic recovery will slow. More...
United Kingdom
Volatility returned for the pound, as it got pounded yesterday during the European session... before recuperating much of its losses during the US session! The GBPUSD pair hit a new monthly low at 1.6100 before moving back up to close just below 1.6300! More...

Technical Major Currencies Midday Report - 7 July 2009

The Euro versus Dollar pair attempted to breach the key support at 1.3950 yet closed above the level which lets us hold our outlook to the upside on the intraday basis targeting the breach of the pivot resistance at 1.3990 to reach 1.4100 as an initial target today. The 1.3950 level must remain intact for the incline to occur.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3655 and the key resistance at 1.4400

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
The Euro versus Dollar pair attempted to breach the key support at 1.3950 yet closed above the level which lets us hold our outlook to the upside on the intraday basis targeting the breach of the pivot resistance at 1.3990 to reach 1.4100 as an initial target today. The 1.3950 level must remain intact for the incline to occur.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3655 and the key resistance at 1.4400

The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120

Morning Forex Overview - July 7, 2009

Previous session overview

EURUSD traded up to test resistance at 1.40 in late New York last night before Asia took the pair back down to the 1.3900 level. Cable too remained very much range-bound, claiming back most of Mondays losses during the course of the New York session just to get sold off in the Far East this morning.

Main driver for the US Dollar was Australia's RBA announcement to leave interest rates unchanged at 3%. This was in-line with market expectations but the statement accompanying the decision confirmed that the present outlook will rather point to further easing despite considerable signs of strength coming from the Chinese economy.

USDJPY rebounded to 95.40 before the pair came under pressure midway through the Asian session. The pair is currently completely uncorrelated to the European pairs and great trading opportunities can be found in the Yen-crosses. Both EURJPY and GBPJPY are currently challenging important support levels and intra-day volatility may quickly rise in the short-term.

Market expectation

UK industrial and manufacturing production was released lower than expected this morning. Cable saw a quick to widen the days low down to 1.6150 before bouncing on take-profit orders.

Expect this afternoon to be fairly range-bound in the absence of important US data. EURUSD should range around 1.3930 with sellers lined up higher between 1.4050 and 1.4130. To the downside, 1.3880 is strong initial support, a break there may lead to 1.3760. Cable is bound to remain between 1.6160 and 1.6300 for now, here too there seem to be sellers waiting for better levels and the risk lies to the downside to attack the 1.60 level next.

USDJPY finally is thought to be driven by the crosses. For now the 95.00 level is well supported, a break there may lead to a larger movement lower over the next few weeks

Financial Climate Change: Debatable?

Jack Crooks
Climate change -- it's taken on a meaning beyond the literal. It is "global warming" ... it is carbon emissions ... it is saving the planet ... it is ridiculous. (Jul 7, 2009)
Alternatives
Prices at producer level have declined from September to October in the United Kingdom, while the year on year increases have been milder than the ones posted in the previous months, according to figu... (Jul 7, 09)
Dollar Finds Support but Rally May Be Short Lived
- EURUSD 1.3887 defines trend - GBPUSD 1.6231 defines trend - AUDUSD .7925 defines trend - NZDUSD .6341 defines trend - USDCAD terminal thrust from triangle - USDCHF decline from 1.1026 an impulse; re... (Jun 30, 09)
Mid-Day Report: Euro Rebounds on Germany Data
Euro rebounds strongly today, boosted by combined effect of strong Germany data and rebound in stocks. (Jul 7, 09)

USD Lower, Russia & China Push for Global Currency Talks Michael J. Malpede

USD Lower, Russia & China Push for Global Currency Talks
Michael J. Malpede

Intraday Market Thoughts at 07:42 ET

Dollar remains generally firm despite smaller than expected losses in Asia and low volume activity in Europe. With US markets out for a long weekend, market activity to start unwinding in a couple of hours. Weaker than expected UK services PMI and disappointing Eurozone retail sales may signal the beginning of the next consolidation in data following the phase of slowing deterioration-which was zealously cheered by the markets. GBPUSD looks to test 1.6270 while recovery cpaped at 1.64 and EURUSD gains seen limited at $1.4070.

British Pound, Australian Dollar to See Rate Decisions Next Week

This is article is released weekdays under the heading "Daily Fundamentals" at 5pm EST on www.dailyfx.com
The British pound and commodity dollars all face high event risk from rate decisions by the Bank of England and Reserve Bank of Australian, along with Canadian employment and business activity reports. The US dollar could also feel the impact of the ISM non-manufacturing index, but ultimately, risk trends remain the primary driver of the safe-haven currency.
US ISM Non-Manufacturing (JUN) - July 6
Conditions in US non-manufacturing sector - which accounts for approximately 70 percent of total economic activity in the country and includes retail, services, and finance - are anticipated to have improved somewhat in June as the Institute for Supply Management index is estimated to rise to 46.0 from 44.0. However, consumer confidence has shown emerging pessimism, primarily on the economic outlook, as the Conference Board's measure surprisingly fell to 49.3 in June from 54.8. Since risk trends have proven to be the greater driver of price action in the forex markets, a weaker than expected result could trigger flight-to-quality and thus, gains for the US dollar.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Rate Decision - July 7
The Reserve Bank of Australia is anticipated to leave their cash rate target unchanged at 00:30 ET on Tuesday for the third straight month at 3.00 percent, and the Australian dollar may only respond to a surprise rate cut or a biased monetary policy statement. As it stands, Credit Suisse Overnight Index Swaps (OIS) are only pricing in a 10 percent chance of a 25 basis point reduction. After the central bank's last meeting, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that future rate cuts would be based on "how economic and financial conditions unfold, and how they impinge on prospects for a sustainable recovery in economic activity." As a result, it will be important to look to Bollard's statement, as signs that the economy or financial markets are not holding up strongly enough for the RBA's liking may suggest that the central bank will consider cutting the cash rate target again, and this news could weigh on the Australian dollar. On the other hand, indications of a broadly neutral bias and comments suggesting that 3.00 percent is essentially the floor for the cash rate target could support the currency.

Female Forex Traders Network

This thread exists primarily for the benefit and contribution of women Forex traders only. Quality content that is "on topic" is welcome.

We love you guys but without a capacity (from some of you) to keep your brains out of your crotch and treat us with respect as colleagues, we need our own space that is free from derrogatory sexist comment.

Comment from male peers who can keep their minds on the subject and discuss the issues intelligently and rationally is welcome. All sexist remarks, trivial or juvenile comment and the originating contributors will be prevented from contributing to this thread. Possessing self-discipline and emotional maturity is a key element of trading this market successfully.

Given the need to actively support and encourage female Forex traders, I'll be happy to mentor free of cost, any woman Forex trader who wishes to get in touch (I will ask to confirm your female identity via voice contact). I'm also more than happy to network with other women via this thread or email.

Here are some links to research and articles that women traders may find interesting - understanding how the male trading brain works has importance for trading behaviour and market psychology. If other female traders would like to contribute various items they find of interest on similar subjects, please feel free.

http://www.sfomag.com/homefeaturedet...st&YearID=2004

http://www.pnas.org/content/105/16/6167.full.pdf

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/08/op...traders&st=cse

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Euro Regains Footing But Drop In Retail Sales Could Be Weighing Factor FRIDAY, 03 JULY 2009 09:32:52 GMT

The Euro reached back above 1.4000 as a revised higher final PMI service reading to 44.7 from 44.5 helped provide support. A surprise improvement in Germany to 45.2 from 44.3 helped offset lower revisions in France and Italy.
Talking Points
• Japanese Yen: Failed To Hold 96.00
• Pound: PMI Services Falls
• Euro: Retail Sales Falls More Than Expected
• US Dollar: 4th of July Holiday
Euro Regains Footing But Drop In Retail Sales Could Be Weighing Factor
The Euro reached back above 1.4000 as a revised higher final PMI service reading to 44.7 from 44.5 helped provide support. A surprise improvement in Germany to 45.2 from 44.3 helped offset lower revisions in France and Italy. Euro bulls then chose to ignore a bigger than expected drop in May Euro-Zone retail sales of 0.4% versus expectations of -0.1%, which dragged the annualized reading to -3.3% from -2.3%. The drop in consumption was lead by non-food sales which fell 0.7% as unemployment reaching 9.4% continues to lead consumers to retrench.
The ECB acknowledged that growth will be difficult to come by for the rest of the year following its decision to lead its benchmark rate at 1.00%. However, President Trichet did forecast that positive results could come as soon as mid 2010. The central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged over the near-term as they asses the impact of their cover bond purchase program. However, President Trichet didn’t rule out future cuts which could limit the upside potential for the single currency. The 20-Day SMA continues to provide support at 1.3984 and until we see a break below a re-test of 1.4340-6/3 high remains a possibility.
The pound continued to see see-saw price action as GBP/USD would reach as high as 1.4632 before a sharp reversal back below 1.6350. Better than expected PMI service and BoE equity withdrawal prints have helped sterling regains its footing. The measure of the service sector fell from 51.7 to 51.6 but beat expectations of 51.5. Meanwhile, the amount of money Britons pulled from their homes fell by a record £8.1 billion in the first quarter but beat expectations of £9.0. The gauge is a strong indicator of demand for big ticket items like cars and vacations. The GBP/USD is threatening to close below the 20-Day SMA for the first time since 4/29 which would be a significant bearish sign. However, I would wait until I see a break below 1.6187-6/18 low before I have conviction of a significant break lower.
The dollar has given back some of its gains following yesterday’s dismal Non-farm payroll release which sparked a flight to safety. European equity markets are only trading slightly lower which could be a sign that optimism still remains. The labor picture is expected to lag and traders will turn their focus to leading indicators for signs of continued improvement. Monday’s ISM Non-manufacturing release will highlight next week’s calendar and if the sector gets closer to expansion then we could see risk appetite restored and the dollar trade lower.

The Strategy Team of our Daily Expert View consists

Asset Management, Saxo Bank
John Hardy publishes daily comments on the Forex market. Mr Hardy's analysis attempts to overlay short term technical developments and fundamental event risks with longer term themes and trends in the G-10 currencies. Mr Hardy considers inter-market correlations as paramount in understanding moves in the Forex space, so the analysis draws on a number of models based on other markets and gauges their correlation with Forex markets in an attempt to detect inefficiencies that may provide trading opportunities.
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Expert View

David Karsbøl
Manager/Market Strategist, Saxo Bank
David Karsbøl holds a Master of Science degree (Economics) from the University of Copenhagen and has previously been employed as an insurance analyst. Mr Karsbøl works with fundamental analysis and research and contributes to Saxo Bank's strategy products. He also develops and maintains macroeconomic models and a number of trading models, which are designed to profit from co-variations between the Forex and fixed income markets. Mr Karsbøl is regularly appears on major financial news networks and comments several days a week on the financial markets via Saxo Bank's live Market Call webcast. He is a native Danish speaker and is fluent in English.

Forex Market Update Wednesday, Jul 01, 2009, 06:04 GMT By Saxo Bank Strategy Team Sales Trading Saxo Bank

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION

Headlines – previous session
US Apr. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index out at -18.12% y/y vs. -18.63% expected
US Jun Chicago PMI out at 39.9 vs. 39.0 expected and 34.9 prior
US Jun Consumer Confidence out at 49.3 vs. 55.3 expected and 54.9 prior
AU AIG Jun Performance of Manufacturing out at 38.4 vs. 37.5 prior
JP Q2 Tankan Lge manufacturers Index out at -48 vs. -43 expected and -58 prior
JP Q2 Tankan Lge Manufacturers Outlook out at -30 vs. -34 expected and -51 prior
JP Q2 Tankan Non-manufacturing out at -29 vs. -27 expected and -31 prior
JP Q2 Tankan Non-manufacturing Outlook out at -21 vs. -23 expected and -30 prior
AU May Retail Sales out at +1.0% m/m vs. +0.5% expected and +0.3% prior
AU May Building Approvals out at -12.5% m/m vs. +3.3% expected and +5.1% prior
China Jun Manufacturing PMI out at 53.2 vs. 53.1 prior
China Jun CLSA Manufacturing PMI out at 51.8 vs. 51.2 prior