Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Canadian and New Zealand Dollars Re-establish Uptrends




The U.S. Dollar finished mixed on Tuesday as investors for the most part looked for opportunities in more risky assets. U.S. equity markets rallied, increasing the desire to buy oversold higher-yielding assets such as the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, while selling the safe-haven Japanese Yen. Some Forex majors changed their daily chart trends to up indicating the potential for more upside movement while others appeared to be headed toward major retracement levels. For the most part the Dollar majors remained inside of their six-week ranges.
The USD CAD opened lower as expected and continued to weaken throughout the day. Risk came back into this market as investors felt confident once again in holding higher-risk, higher-yielding assets.
Yesterday's rise in equities along with a friendly Bank of Canada quarterly report helped the Canadian Dollar recover from its lowest level since May. A shift in sentiment triggered a reversal in the USD CAD on Monday. This pair had been rallying for about six weeks on concerns over the deteriorating global economy.
The Business Outlook survey from the Bank of Canada showed that business executives felt their sales would grow over the next year. In the survey, 61% of executives surveyed felt their sales would grow while only 23% were looking for a decline. The gap between the two figures suggests that sentiment in the business community may be shifting.
This news may be what the Canadian Dollar needs to put in a bottom, but improvements in the equity markets and crude oil are going to be necessary to help turn the current down trend back up.

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